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                3. 西諾網

                  外國網友評論:中國 VS 世界經濟:一個全球挑戰

                  If Donald Trump had slapped punitive tariffs on all Chinese exports to America, as he promised, he would have started a trade war. Fortunately, the President hesitated, partly because he wants China’s help in thwarting North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.

                  如果特朗普像他保證的那樣,對所有中國出口到美國的產品施加了懲罰性關稅,他就已經等于開啟了一場貿易戰。幸好這位總統猶豫了,部分是因為他想挫敗朝鮮核野心,希望得到中國的幫助。

                  But that is not the end of the story. Tensions over China’s industrial might now threaten the architecture of the global economy. The US trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, this week called China an “unprecedented” threat that cannot be tamed by existing trade rules.

                  但是故事還沒結束。圍繞中國工業力量的緊張局勢現在威脅到了全球經濟的結構。美國貿易代表羅伯特本周稱中國是一個無法被現存貿易規則馴服的“前所未有”的威脅。

                  The EU, worried by a spate of Chinese acquisitions, is drafting stricter rules on foreign investment. And, all the while, China’s strategy for modernising its economy is adding further strain.

                  為中國洪水般兇猛的收購潮所擔憂的歐盟正在起草更嚴格的外國投資法案。一直以來,中國經濟現代化的策略就是進一步增加張力。

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                  At the heart of these tensions is one simple, overwhelming fact: companies around the world face ever more intense competition from their Chinese rivals. China is not the first country to industrialise, but none has made the leap so rapidly and on such a monumental scale.

                  這些緊張局勢的核心是一個簡單的、壓倒性的事實:全世界的公司面臨比以前更多的中國競爭對手的緊張競爭。中國不是第一個工業化的國家,但是沒有哪個國家以這樣非同尋常的規模那么迅速地發展起來。

                  Little more than a decade ago, Chinese boom towns churned out zips, socks and cigarette lighters. Today the country is at the global frontier of new technology in everything from mobile payments to driverless cars.

                  十多年以前,中國繁榮的城鎮大量生產拉鏈、襪子和打火機。今天,這個國家站在了全球新技術的前沿,從移動支付到無人駕駛汽車。

                  Even as China’s achievements inspire awe, there is growing concern that the world will be dominated by an economy that does not play fair. Businesses feel threatened. Governments that have seen Brexit and the election of Trump worry about the effects of job losses and shrinking technological leadership. Yet if the outcome is to be good, they must all think clearly about the real nature of China’s challenge.

                  即使中國的成就讓人敬畏,但也越來越讓人擔心世界會被一個不遵守游戲規則的經濟體所領導。商界感受到了威脅。見證過英國脫歐和特朗普大選的各國政府擔心失業的影響和不斷失去的技術領先地位, 而如果結果是好的,他們都必須想清楚中國帶來的挑戰真正的本質是什么。

                  毫無疑問,中國有形狀的。它讓自己的貨幣保持低價很多年,推動了出口;它用低息貸款資助它的國有巨頭企業;它的網絡間諜竊取機密。但是,外界對中國企業的描述如非敏煮的國營怪獸企業、靠偷和騙領先等等,這些描述是粗魯而過時的。

                  That may fall as China loses its grip on low-value industries such as textiles. But it is gaining a new reputation in hi-tech. If data is the new oil, China’s tech industry has vast reserves in the information generated by the hundreds of millions of its people online — unprotected by privacy rules. Whether you make cars in Germany, semiconductors in the US or robots in Japan, the chances are that in future some of your fiercest rivals will be Chinese.

                  這可以說是中國松開了握住低價值產業如紡織業的手。但是在高科技領域它正在取得新的成就。如果數據是新的石油,中國的技術產業擁有龐大網民(不被隱私法保護)產生的巨量信息儲備。不管你是在德國造車也好,在美國造半導體也好,或在日本造機器人也好,未來可能你最激烈的競爭對手將會是中國人。

                  首先,想一想中國競爭的非法性。最好的例子是轟動一時的公然竊取知識產權的新聞,比如2014控告5名中國軍官黑進美國核能、太陽能和金屬企業。好消息是這樣的新聞正在減少。2015年中國和美國的一份協議好像讓中國對外國公司的黑客行為有了標志性的降低,隨著中國公司創造更多的價值,他們本身在國內也需要更好的知識產權保護。

                  第二個維度——緊張但合法的競爭——要重要的得多。中國公司證明了他們能夠以低價制造優質產品。在中國加入世界貿易組織15年后,因質量而調整的電視機的消費價格下跌了90%。中國的全球出口份額上升到了14%,這是自繼美國1968年之后,所有國家能達到的最高點。

                  Last, and hardest to deal with, is unfair competition: sharp practice that breaks no global rules. The government demands that firms give away technology as the cost of admission to China’s vast market. Foreign firms have been targeted in the biggest of China’s anti-monopoly cases. The government restricts access to lucrative sectors while financing assaults on those same industries abroad. Such behaviour is dangerous precisely because today’s rules offer no redress.

                  最后一點,也是最難處理的,即不公平競爭:中國的商業利劍沒有違反任何全球規則。政府要求公司交出技術作為進入中國巨大市場的入場券。外國公司成為了中國最大反壟斷案的目標。政府限制了高利潤行業的準入資格,同時又資助國內公司對國外同樣行業的攻占。這種行為的危險恰恰是因為當今的商業規則沒有提供自我矯正的途徑。

                  本土創新正在繁榮發展。創新者主要是私企,并非是單單的一個叫做中國公司的有著很多個頭的生物。為了把媒體的大肆宣傳和現實分開,要從三個維度思考中國的競爭:非法、緊張和不公平。每一個都需要一個不同的回答。

                  Sorting Chinese competition into these categories helps calibrate the response.
                  Blatant illegality is the most straightforward. Governments must prosecute and seek redress, whether through the courts or the WTO. Companies can better protect themselves against cyber-thieves — from China and elsewhere.
                  Though it is politically hard, the best response to intense competition is to welcome it. Consumers will gain from lower costs and faster innovation. Misguided attempts to hold back the tide would not only lose those potential gains but also might blow up the world trading system, with catastrophic results. Rather than try to stop the loss of jobs, governments should provide retraining and a decent safety net. Companies and governments need to spend more on education and research. Six years ago, Barack Obama said the US faced a new “Sputnik moment” in China’s rise. Since then not much extra has been devoted to research, training and infrastructure.

                  把中國的競爭分為以上三類可以幫助我們調整回應策略。公然違規是最簡單直接的。不管是通過國際法庭還是通過世貿組織,各國政府必須起訴并尋求修改規則。企業可以更好地保護他們自己免受從中國或任何其他國家的網絡竊取。但是這在政治上很難辦,對激烈競爭的最好回應是歡迎它。消費者將會受益于更低的價格和更快的創新。被誤導并企圖阻擋潮流不但會喪失潛在的收獲,還可能破壞世界貿易體系,帶來災難性的后果。與其試圖阻止工作流失,各國政府不如提供再教育計劃和一個像樣的福利計劃。各國企業和政府需要把更多資源花在教育和研究上。6年前,奧巴馬說美國在中國崛起的過程中面臨著一個新的“衛星時刻”。自那時起,沒有多少額外資源被用在研究、培訓和基礎設施上。(譯注:衛星時刻,1957年前蘇聯發射首顆人造衛星,極大的刺激了與蘇聯正處于冷戰中的美國人,“衛星時刻”后來被專門用來形容國家間競爭的焦慮感和危機感。)

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